Five Year Plan - Sensitivity Analysis
North Coast Railroad Authority
Sensitivity Analyses Comparing the Results of Various Positive and Negative Factors
on the Sources and Uses of Funds
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Five Year
    98/99     99/00     00/01     01/02     02/03     Total
(in thousands of dollars)
    Economic Base Case
Total Sources 6166.4 18519.3 11541.3 6302.9 2553.3 45083.2
Total Uses 13783.7 17987.0 11143.1 4169.1 702.1 47785.0
Net -7617.3 532.3 398.2 2133.8 1851.2 -2701.8
Cumulative Net -7085.0 -6686.8 -4553.0 -2701.8
               RISKS
               Downside Economics for Private Funding Sources
Total Sources 6166.4 17200.4 10078.7 5497.9 1719.2 40662.6
Total Uses 13783.7 17987.0 11143.1 4169.1 702.1 47785.0
Net -7617.3 -786.6 -1064.4 1328.8 1017.1 -7122.4
Cumulative Net -8403.9 -9468.3 -8139.5 -7122.4
Expenses Increase 10% in Years 2 through 5, Receipts Remain the Same
Total Sources 6166.4 18519.3 11541.3 6302.9 2553.3 45083.2
Total Uses 13783.7 19785.7 12257.4 4586.0 772.3 51185.1
Net -7617.3 -1266.4 -716.1 1716.9 1781.0 -6101.9
Cumulative Net -8883.7 -9599.8 -7882.9 -6101.9
        Expenses Increase 10% Yrs. 2-5, Downside Economics for Private Funding Sources
Total Sources 6166.4 17200.4 10078.7 5497.9 1719.2 40662.6
Total Uses 13783.7 19785.7 12257.4 4586.0 772.3 51185.1
Net -7617.3 -2585.3 -2178.7 911.9 946.9 -10522.5
Cumulative Net -10202.6 -12381.3 -11469.4 -10522.5
   OPPORTUNITIES
Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources
Total Sources 6166.4 19361.4 12573.3 7440.0 3779.8 49320.9
Total Uses 13783.7 17987.0 11143.1 4169.1 702.1 47785.0
Net -7617.3 1374.4 1430.2 3270.9 3077.7 1535.9
Cumulative Net -6242.9 -4812.7 -1541.8 1535.9
           Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources, STIP Funds Received -$391,000
Total Sources 6166.4 19752.4 12573.3 7440.0 3779.8 49711.9
Total Uses 13783.7 17987.0 11143.1 4169.1 702.1 47785.0
Net -7617.3 1765.4 1430.2 3270.9 3077.7 1926.9
Cumulative Net -5851.9 -4421.7 -1150.8 1926.9
     Q Fund and CDL become Grants, Not Loans
Total Sources 6166.4 18519.3 11541.3 6302.9 2553.3 45083.2
Total Uses 13783.7 16795.9 10017.8 3834.1 367.1 44798.6
Net -7617.3 1723.4 1523.5 2468.8 2186.2 284.6
Cumulative Net -5893.9 -4370.4 -1901.6 284.6
North Coast Railroad Authority
Sensitivity Analyses Comparing the Results of Various Positive and Negative Factors
on the Sources and Uses of Funds
Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Fiscal Year Five Year
    98/99     99/00     00/01     01/02     02/03     Total
(in thousands of dollars)
 OPPORTUNITIES,  CONTINUED
          FEMA Appeals Filed to Date $1,246,000 Successful
Total Sources 6166.4 19645.3 11541.3 6302.9 2553.3 46209.2
Total Uses 13783.7 17987.0 11143.1 4169.1 702.1 47785.0
Net -7617.3 1658.3 398.2 2133.8 1851.2 -1575.8
Cumulative Net -5959.0 -5560.8 -3427.0 -1575.8
Q Fund and CDL become Grants, Not Loans, FEMA Appeals Successful
Total Sources 6166.4 19645.3 11541.3 6302.9 2553.3 46209.2
Total Uses 13783.7 16795.9 10017.8 3834.1 367.1 44798.6
Net -7617.3 2849.4 1523.5 2468.8 2186.2 1410.6
Cumulative Net -4767.9 -3244.4 -775.6 1410.6
Q Fund & CDL become Grants, FEMA Appeals & Disputed Claims Successful
Total Sources 6166.4 19645.3 11541.3 6302.9 2553.3 46209.2
Total Uses 13183.7 16795.9 10017.8 3834.1 367.1 44198.6
Net -7017.3 2849.4 1523.5 2468.8 2186.2 2010.6
Cumulative Net -4167.9 -2644.4 -175.6 2010.6
Receive $5 million as a Result of Federal Income Tax Benefit Pass Through - Yrs. 3 & 4
Total Sources 6166.4 18519.3 14041.3 8802.9 2553.3 50083.2
Total Uses 13783.7 17987.0 11143.1 4169.1 702.1 47785.0
Net -7617.3 532.3 2898.2 4633.8 1851.2 2298.2
Cumulative Net -7085.0 -4186.8 447.0 2298.2
       Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources, STIP Funds Received -$391,000
           Q Fund & CDL become Grants, FEMA Appeals & Disputed Claims Successful
Total Sources 6166.4 20878.4 12573.3 7440.0 3779.8 50837.9
Total Uses 13183.7 16795.9 10017.8 3834.1 367.1 44198.6
Net -7017.3 4082.5 2555.5 3605.9 3412.7 6639.3
Cumulative Net -2934.8 -379.3 3226.6 6639.3
        Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources, STIP Funds Received -$391,000
            Q Fund & CDL become Grants, FEMA Appeals & Disputed Claims Successful
   Receive $5 million as a Result of Federal Income Tax Benefit Pass Through - Yrs. 3 & 4
Total Sources 6166.4 20878.4 15073.3 9940.0 3779.8 55837.9
Total Uses 13183.7 16795.9 10017.8 3834.1 367.1 44198.6
Net -7017.3 4082.5 5055.5 6105.9 3412.7 11639.3
Cumulative Net -2934.8 2120.7 8226.6 11639.3