| Five Year Plan - Sensitivity Analysis | ||||||||||||
| North Coast Railroad Authority | ||||||||||||
| Sensitivity Analyses Comparing the Results of Various Positive and Negative Factors | ||||||||||||
| on the Sources and Uses of Funds | ||||||||||||
| Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Five Year | |||||||
| 98/99 | 99/00 | 00/01 | 01/02 | 02/03 | Total | |||||||
| (in thousands of dollars) | ||||||||||||
| Economic Base Case | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 18519.3 | 11541.3 | 6302.9 | 2553.3 | 45083.2 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 17987.0 | 11143.1 | 4169.1 | 702.1 | 47785.0 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | 532.3 | 398.2 | 2133.8 | 1851.2 | -2701.8 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -7085.0 | -6686.8 | -4553.0 | -2701.8 | ||||||||
| RISKS | ||||||||||||
| Downside Economics for Private Funding Sources | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 17200.4 | 10078.7 | 5497.9 | 1719.2 | 40662.6 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 17987.0 | 11143.1 | 4169.1 | 702.1 | 47785.0 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | -786.6 | -1064.4 | 1328.8 | 1017.1 | -7122.4 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -8403.9 | -9468.3 | -8139.5 | -7122.4 | ||||||||
| Expenses Increase 10% in Years 2 through 5, Receipts Remain the Same | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 18519.3 | 11541.3 | 6302.9 | 2553.3 | 45083.2 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 19785.7 | 12257.4 | 4586.0 | 772.3 | 51185.1 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | -1266.4 | -716.1 | 1716.9 | 1781.0 | -6101.9 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -8883.7 | -9599.8 | -7882.9 | -6101.9 | ||||||||
| Expenses Increase 10% Yrs. 2-5, Downside Economics for Private Funding Sources | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 17200.4 | 10078.7 | 5497.9 | 1719.2 | 40662.6 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 19785.7 | 12257.4 | 4586.0 | 772.3 | 51185.1 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | -2585.3 | -2178.7 | 911.9 | 946.9 | -10522.5 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -10202.6 | -12381.3 | -11469.4 | -10522.5 | ||||||||
| OPPORTUNITIES | ||||||||||||
| Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 19361.4 | 12573.3 | 7440.0 | 3779.8 | 49320.9 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 17987.0 | 11143.1 | 4169.1 | 702.1 | 47785.0 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | 1374.4 | 1430.2 | 3270.9 | 3077.7 | 1535.9 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -6242.9 | -4812.7 | -1541.8 | 1535.9 | ||||||||
| Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources, STIP Funds Received -$391,000 | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 19752.4 | 12573.3 | 7440.0 | 3779.8 | 49711.9 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 17987.0 | 11143.1 | 4169.1 | 702.1 | 47785.0 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | 1765.4 | 1430.2 | 3270.9 | 3077.7 | 1926.9 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -5851.9 | -4421.7 | -1150.8 | 1926.9 | ||||||||
| Q Fund and CDL become Grants, Not Loans | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 18519.3 | 11541.3 | 6302.9 | 2553.3 | 45083.2 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 16795.9 | 10017.8 | 3834.1 | 367.1 | 44798.6 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | 1723.4 | 1523.5 | 2468.8 | 2186.2 | 284.6 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -5893.9 | -4370.4 | -1901.6 | 284.6 | ||||||||
| North Coast Railroad Authority | ||||||||||||
| Sensitivity Analyses Comparing the Results of Various Positive and Negative Factors | ||||||||||||
| on the Sources and Uses of Funds | ||||||||||||
| Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Fiscal Year | Five Year | |||||||
| 98/99 | 99/00 | 00/01 | 01/02 | 02/03 | Total | |||||||
| (in thousands of dollars) | ||||||||||||
| OPPORTUNITIES, CONTINUED | ||||||||||||
| FEMA Appeals Filed to Date $1,246,000 Successful | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 19645.3 | 11541.3 | 6302.9 | 2553.3 | 46209.2 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 17987.0 | 11143.1 | 4169.1 | 702.1 | 47785.0 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | 1658.3 | 398.2 | 2133.8 | 1851.2 | -1575.8 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -5959.0 | -5560.8 | -3427.0 | -1575.8 | ||||||||
| Q Fund and CDL become Grants, Not Loans, FEMA Appeals Successful | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 19645.3 | 11541.3 | 6302.9 | 2553.3 | 46209.2 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 16795.9 | 10017.8 | 3834.1 | 367.1 | 44798.6 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | 2849.4 | 1523.5 | 2468.8 | 2186.2 | 1410.6 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -4767.9 | -3244.4 | -775.6 | 1410.6 | ||||||||
| Q Fund & CDL become Grants, FEMA Appeals & Disputed Claims Successful | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 19645.3 | 11541.3 | 6302.9 | 2553.3 | 46209.2 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13183.7 | 16795.9 | 10017.8 | 3834.1 | 367.1 | 44198.6 | ||||||
| Net | -7017.3 | 2849.4 | 1523.5 | 2468.8 | 2186.2 | 2010.6 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -4167.9 | -2644.4 | -175.6 | 2010.6 | ||||||||
| Receive $5 million as a Result of Federal Income Tax Benefit Pass Through - Yrs. 3 & 4 | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 18519.3 | 14041.3 | 8802.9 | 2553.3 | 50083.2 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13783.7 | 17987.0 | 11143.1 | 4169.1 | 702.1 | 47785.0 | ||||||
| Net | -7617.3 | 532.3 | 2898.2 | 4633.8 | 1851.2 | 2298.2 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -7085.0 | -4186.8 | 447.0 | 2298.2 | ||||||||
| Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources, STIP Funds Received -$391,000 | ||||||||||||
| Q Fund & CDL become Grants, FEMA Appeals & Disputed Claims Successful | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 20878.4 | 12573.3 | 7440.0 | 3779.8 | 50837.9 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13183.7 | 16795.9 | 10017.8 | 3834.1 | 367.1 | 44198.6 | ||||||
| Net | -7017.3 | 4082.5 | 2555.5 | 3605.9 | 3412.7 | 6639.3 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -2934.8 | -379.3 | 3226.6 | 6639.3 | ||||||||
| Upside Economics for Private Funding Sources, STIP Funds Received -$391,000 | ||||||||||||
| Q Fund & CDL become Grants, FEMA Appeals & Disputed Claims Successful | ||||||||||||
| Receive $5 million as a Result of Federal Income Tax Benefit Pass Through - Yrs. 3 & 4 | ||||||||||||
| Total Sources | 6166.4 | 20878.4 | 15073.3 | 9940.0 | 3779.8 | 55837.9 | ||||||
| Total Uses | 13183.7 | 16795.9 | 10017.8 | 3834.1 | 367.1 | 44198.6 | ||||||
| Net | -7017.3 | 4082.5 | 5055.5 | 6105.9 | 3412.7 | 11639.3 | ||||||
| Cumulative Net | -2934.8 | 2120.7 | 8226.6 | 11639.3 | ||||||||